A front-loader or “loader” is a dealer who exposes his hole card to the player as he pulls it out of the deck, or, prior to or during the process of sliding it under his upcard. Front-loaders who hand-hold the deck offer the potential of seeing every hole card and are money in the bank to the player. A front-loading play is the most lucrative legal situation that exists in blackjack for the player.
Dealers are usually carefully trained not to expose their hole cards while dealing in Black Jack. Despite this training, it’s inevitable that some dealers will develop sloppy dealing habits that allow the player to read the hole card. This is particularly the case during the crowded summer periods in Northern Nevada, where dozens of inexperienced dealers are needed to handle peak tourist loads.
In front-loading, the card is visible to one or more players at the table, usually from third base (first base with left-handed dealers) or the middle of the table. There are not many front-loaders in Nevada, perhaps l-out-of-200 dealers, so tedious preliminary scouting is often required.
The front-loading player has the opportunity to read every hole card. This gives the player a tremendous advantage on Casino. For example, if the dealer has a “stiff,” that is, a bustable hand of 12 through 16, it is almost always to the player’s advantage not to hit his own hand if he, too, has a stiff. Thus, the dealer takes the risk of busting. An even more dramatic example: if the dealer has an ace upcard and the player knows the hole card, the player always will be correct on the insurance bet. The player could gain greater than a 2% edge just by playing even with the house on his other play and winning all insurance bets!
Thorp (1) estimates that a player with knowledge of the dealer’s hole card is playing at a 9.9% advantage if he uses perfect hole card Basic Strategy. We have found, however, that the player, with typical Las
Vegas rules, is actually at a 5-6% advantage, for the following reasons:
— Many Basic Strategy hole card plays cannot be made. If the player were to hit 19 against a dealer’s 20, the men in the sky would probably fall through their one-way mirrors. Many such plays cannot be made for cover purposes.
— The player can rarely spot every single hole card. A good front-loader is “readable” 80-to-90% of the time; others may expose their hole card only 25-to-35% of the time, or less.
— Reading errors occur. I once split 4’s against a dealer 20, a horrible play, with a $500 bet out. Somehow, the 10 of clubs in the hole looked like a six.
On the other hand, there are two offsetting factors which work to the player’s advantage:
1. The player always wins the insurance bet (at a 2-to-l payoff) if the hole card is seen. On average, the dealer will have an ace up 7.7% of the time (l-out-of-13); in 31% of those times (4-out-of-13) the dealer will have a blackjack. Thus, 31% times 7.7%, or 2.4%, of the dealer’s hands will be an ace-up blackjack. If the player were to flat bet and play even with the house, and win 2-to-l on every insurance half-bet, he’d have a 2.4% edge. So, insurance adds a 2.4% edge in favor of the player facing a 100% front-loader.
2. Thorp’s 9.9% edge is predicated upon playing hole card Basic Strategy. There are times when the counting player can use matrix numbers in varying his play:
— For example, if the dealer has a hard total of 7, counting both his hole card and his upcard, perhaps a 5 and a 2, the player can play as if the dealer had a 7 upcard and he had not yet drawn a hole card. The matrix numbers for these plays (16 vs. 7, 15 vs. 7, etc.) can be applied, giving the player a greater edge.
— Special hole card numbers have been developed. For example, while Basic Strategy calls for standing on 12 versus a 12, when the deck is sufficiently minus, this hand should be hit. Hole card numbers for the more common plays for the Advanced Plus/Minus and the Uston APC are included in Table 14-2.
For element-of-ruin purposes, we assume a 5% advantage with a 100% front-loader, a 4% advantage with an 80% dealer, 3% with a 60% dealer and 2% with anything less.
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